Florida in the 21st Century

PROJECT SUMMARY
Population projections prepared by the GeoPlan Center at the University of Florida predict that Florida's population will double in size from 17.9 million people in 2005 to 35.8 million people in 2060. In addition, the projections predict that by 2060, 7 million additional acres of land will be consumed by development to serve the predicted increase in population.

The studio used GeoPlan's population trend projections to prepare an alternative. The alternative to the trend predicts for 2060, given the same population increase, 1.6 million acres of newly developed land and 250,000 acres of higher density infill development. 8.5 million acres of highest priority lands for conservation will be preserved in this alternative, and only 37,000 acres of these highest priority lands will be lost to development. By 2060, the cost of urbanization in this alternative scenario will be $174 billion, $526 billion less than the trend.

To achieve these savings in urbanization costs, Florida would need to secure the development rights to 8.5 million acres of highest priority conservation land, construct a high-speed rail network for the entire state, and develop a local rail system to connect at every high-speed rail stop. The alternative study estimates the total cost of land conservation and the construction of a statewide high-speed rail network and related local transit systems will total $265 billion, plus $21 billion in highway expenditures to serve newly urbanized areas. The costs of the high-speed rail, local transit, and additional highways in the alternative will be less than the expenditure for new highways alone if development follows the trend.