When the Train Never Comes: Property Value Impacts from the Announcement and Cancellation of a Light Rail Project

Associate Professor and Director of the Master of Urban Spatial Analytics, Elizabeth Delmelle, co-authored a paper with Associate Professor Isabelle Nilsson and PhD Candidate Michael-Paul James from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, titled "When the Train Never Comes: Property Value Impacts from the Announcement and Cancellation of a Light Rail Project." The study, published in Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, examines how property marketing language in real estate advertisements shapes the racial and income composition of mortgage applicants in neighborhoods. Using machine learning to analyze over 158,000 property listings and mortgage data from Charlotte, North Carolina (2001-2021), the researchers classified advertisements into five categories along a housing investment continuum. Their findings reveal stark racial disparities: Black applicants overwhelmingly apply for mortgages in neighborhoods where properties are marketed as "disinvested" with little profit-making potential, while White applicants concentrate in areas advertised as "expensive investments" or "new suburban" developments. These patterns persist even among similar income groups, suggesting that real estate marketing language serves as a subtle but powerful mechanism reinforcing residential segregation in American housing markets.